No Need to Panic

Today's announcement that there's No Need To Panic comes as a result of swine flu. Isn't it strange that there are so many things we don't need to panic about? I am so busy not panicking some days that I can't get any work done. I wonder which organisation will issue a press release saying Panic Now! Well, actually I know, because I have just seen one. It came from carrentals.co.uk and told the world that we are going to run out of rental cars this summer unless we all panic and book now. It's a nice try - but both of these styles of communication seem to me to be treating us like idiots. We have all had enough of the message that we are all doomed - how about some grown up, funny, interesting messages and we might start listening again.

All In

A Singapore hotel is giving new meaning to the term 'All Inclusive'. For s$208 - that's £95 to us - the Quincy on Mount Elizabeth is including the room, 3 meals a day, internet, local calls, laundry, mini bar drinks, an evening cocktail and limousine pick up from the airport. Since it opened last month it has achieved 76% occupancy - and this against a backdrop of a 15% fall in visitors to Singapore. This will either strike fear into the hearts of London hoteliers, or it will generate a more hard headed response that the hotel will go broke quite soon.

Whatever the response, it is an indication that this is what our competition is doing. I take the view that there are many opportunities in this recession, but there is also a lot of pain on the way for some. The latest Visit Britain research shows just how fearful Americans are for their future, and there are many other countries where there is real worry and little in the way of the comfort blanket of a welfare system.

The pattern of the impact of this recession on travel and tourism is beginning to become clearer - 5 star, conference, incentive, air travel, business tourism and the shoulder season are a really hard sell. I wonder who is thinking through the implications of this for our sector? These are the most profitable parts of business and where the serious investment money comes from. Has anybody noticed that this could be very bad for the quality of the sector just as 2012 edges nearer and nearer? I don't suppose that Boris or Tessa is going to get out the begging bowl for the Ritz or the Savoy, but it would be nice to think that someone somewhere has a handle on these issues.

Jobs for the Boys

The Sunday Times appointments section last week had 10 pages of jobs - not bad for a recession. Look more closely and you will see that of the 60 or so jobs advertised only 3 were in the private sector and 2 of those arose because of a Local Authority contract. This is disturbing on lots of levels. The tensions in Lincolnshire provide some clue as to how this recession might shape up - with anger and resentment from people who feel that they are being unfairly treated. In the world of tourism there has been a broad acceptance that the public sector and its many organisations will employ people who develop strategy and work on long term issues like sustainability. The private sector will contribute, but mainly get on with the job of running a business or making a living. So what happens when that living is threatened? How much resentment will there be towards the latest initiative or the new Chief Executive on a Local Authority pension? Fortunately it looks like tourism will do better than many industries this year, but it is going to be tough - especially in the shoulder periods. As those running businesses watch their cash balances run down and face having to cut costs - including staff - the potential for deteriorating relationships increases. Those in the public or semi public sector need to think about this now and demonstrate that they have noticed that the world has changed. The alternative is an industry that turns in on itself and misses the real opportunities to win business and survive.

Feeling Small

World Travel Market is such a spectacle. You emerge from the chaotic transport, cold and rain into a world of colour and energy. There is no doubt that this comes from the new destinations that have embraced tourism with optimism and money - Kazhakstan anyone? What a wonderful contrast to the hard bitten, slightly cynical presence of the old hands. The countries that don't really want to be there, but haven't quite got the courage to withdraw completely. Of all the sights and sounds the message that stays with me came from a poster on the way in - it said, "You are one of 264 million people that work in tourism and hospitality" Wow. After feeling pretty irrelevant for a while this gave me an enormous sense of optimism. Just like the new exhibitors, the industry constantly reinvents itself and this excitement is contagious. We will need this energy to get through the next two tough years, but we will.

O Still Small Voice of Calm

It feels like we are living next to a volcano, the rumbling mountain is the media - spewing out ever more alarming messages about the financial crisis. We can see the smoke and hear the rumbles. We know its bad but we don't know whether we are going to end up like those petrified bodies in Pompei or breathing a sigh of relief as the sea of mud passes us by. The government and the commentators are like seismologists running around telling us what the measurement was yesterday when all we want to know is what is going to happen tomorrow. They say 'cometh the hour, cometh the man' - well I wish he would hurry up and turn up because there has been no sign of him (or her) so far. Where is the leadership that you so badly need in a crisis? The person who speaks the truth and gives confidence to people because of their competence, strength and calm analysis. Your country needs you!

It seems the same in the tourism industry - a growing well of worry and no one really in charge. Yes, some of the messages are positive, yes, people might holiday at home and no, we shouldn't talk ourselves down. But there is a cold front on the way and a bit of hard headed realism and some practical advice might be timely. Step forward Visit Britain/Visit England/Visit Scotland/Visit London/ Visit AnyPlace - I don't think it matters which Visit you are, just step forward and show some leadership.

World survives Big Bang

I came home from a meeting last week the proud owner of an Evening Standard poster with the caption, 'World survives Big Bang'. I plan to frame it and hang it on my office wall. It is a reminder that the things that are most often predicted to be catastrophic rarely are (anyone remember Y2K?) while the real crisis is quietly building up somewhere in the distance. The book, The Black Swan, explains how the most unexpected events are the result of forces coming together that have been building up, unseen over time. As someone who spends a lot of time talking about crisis management this does not mean a counsel of despair. Really good crisis management planning is about an attitude of mind - we really don't know what is coming next but the best people and organisations have an ability to look the unexpected in the eye and feel confident that their systems and their people will cope. Not because they are genuises, but because they have planned and rehearsed and they know it matters. And because they have had advice from me, of course!

Some days are good days

Somehow I find myself as an external examiner for students who are studying a Masters in Tourism. I thought I would need a red pen and a stern expression, but it is much more interesting than that. Best of all I get to meet students from around the world who are busy thinking about what we do. Sometimes this is quite humbling - like today. I met a student doing research for a dissertation and wow! Organised, thoughtful, intelligent and so committed - didn't I just go to parties at that age? It is easy to be cynical about travel and tourism but it has been a fantastic career for me and today I was reminded that it has been a privilege - and one that young bright students have to work so hard to get into. I made a resolution to try and do more to help them - we'll see......